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2005:
A STABLE TIME FOR GIC ISSUERS
Throughout
our nineteen-year history, FCM has primarily focused its stable value
investment activities in diversified portfolios of traditional guaranteed
investment contracts (GICs) issued by major life insurance companies.
We have found several relative value advantages in using GICs over other
stable value products including their policyholder status and superior
yield premiums relative to other comparable high-grade obligations.
In general, GIC issuers represent the most creditworthy segment of a
high quality, mature industry that exhibits strong credit fundamentals
including: solid capital levels, diversified revenue and earnings sources,
consistent operating cash flows, and conservative balance sheets.
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David J. Molin,
CFA
Vice President and Director of Research
Fiduciary Capital Management, Inc.
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The credit
fundamentals of FCM's GIC issuer universe and the life insurance industry
as a whole remained solid in 2005, continuing the improving trend from
the difficult environment back in 2001 and 2002. After the strong rebound
in 2003, financial market conditions continued to stabilize in 2004
and 2005 with relatively low levels of corporate defaults, positive
returns for the equity markets, and steadily higher interest rates.
This has translated into solid earnings performance and improved balance
sheet profiles of GIC issuers with credit fundamentals making a full
recovery from the effects of the economic and equity market downturn
just a few years ago. In response to the stable operating environment
and solid financial performance, all of the major credit rating agencies
currently maintain a "stable outlook" for the life insurance
industry and the vast majority of GIC issuers have stable outlooks for
their financial strength ratings (typically AA or higher).
As of year-end
2005, the universe of GIC issuers that FCM follows continued to report
sound capitalization with total statutory surplus of $98 billion, down
slightly from the historically high total surplus level of $100 billion
at year-end 2004, but well above the $80 billion reported at year-end
2002. Despite the slight decline in total surplus, individual issuer
capital positions remained favorable when compared to historical levels
with the average ratio of total surplus to general account assets ending
2005 at 9.9%, down slightly from 10.1% at year-end 2004, as surplus
augmentation remained in line with asset growth. On a risk-adjusted
basis, capital ratios improved modestly with FCM's GIC universe reporting
an average NAIC Risk-Based Capital (RBC) ratio of 417% (total adjusted
capital to company action level), an increase from 404% at year-end
2004. Although declining somewhat from the record levels achieved in
2004, GIC issuers reported healthy statutory earnings in 2005 with aggregate
operating income of nearly $11 billion and net income of nearly $13
billion. Overall, statutory earnings performance continued to benefit
from low realized investment losses, higher fee revenue on augmented
asset balances for equity-linked products, and stabilizing net interest
spreads.
GIC issuers
for the most part have traditionally maintained conservative investment
portfolios. Since the commercial real estate problems of the early nineties,
issuers have increasingly focused their investing activities into diversified
bond portfolios, which currently represent almost 75% of the average
GIC issuer's invested assets. In general, GIC issuer bond portfolios
are conservatively managed with over 90% invested in investment grade
securities and significant diversification by individual issuer and
sector. As of year-end 2005, average below investment grade bond holdings
decreased to only 6.0% of total bonds, compared to 6.7% in 2004 and
close to 9% in 2002. This decline in high yield holdings has resulted
largely from the improved credit environment with lower levels of "fallen
angels", along with strategic decisions to reduce exposure to this
asset class due to historically high valuations. Moreover, the majority
of these bonds are in the highest below investment grade rating class
of BB. That being said, FCM considers current positions in these higher
risk assets to be very manageable given the sizable financial resources
available to GIC issuers to absorb potential losses. After bond holdings,
commercial mortgages comprise the second largest investment allocation
representing approximately 10% of the average GIC issuer's invested
assets. Over the past few years, this asset class has performed very
well with the average ratio of non-performing loans to total mortgages
at only 0.1% as of year-end 2005. Going forward, the commercial real
estate market is expected to weaken somewhat if interest rates continue
their upward trend. Nonetheless, a moderate degree of deterioration
would have only a negligible impact on overall GIC issuer asset quality.
In summary,
we expect GIC issuers to continue to be one of the most creditworthy
segments of the high-grade fixed income market and FCM views recent
operating trends as further supporting credit fundamentals.
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